Ethiopians vote in high-stakes election as Abiy seeks renewed mandate amid conflict and economic transformation

Supporters of Ethiopia's ruling Prosperity Party cheer at a rally ahead of the national elections in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Tuesday, May 26, 2026. (AP Photo/Amanuel Sileshi)

 Our Correspondence

Millions of Ethiopians headed to polling stations on Monday in a pivotal general election expected to hand Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his ruling Prosperity Party another decisive parliamentary majority, extending his hold on power at a moment when the country remains caught between ambitious economic reforms and unresolved security crises.

Long queues formed before dawn in parts of the capital, Addis Ababa, while security forces were deployed across major urban centers as voting began in Africa's second-most populous nation.

For the government, the election represents a milestone in Ethiopia's democratic evolution and a validation of Abiy's efforts to modernize the economy and strengthen state institutions. 

Critics, however, argue that the vote is taking place in an uneven political environment marked by opposition fragmentation, restrictions on political activity, and the exclusion of millions of citizens living in conflict-affected regions.

More than 50 million registered voters are eligible to cast ballots for members of the 547-seat House of Peoples' Representatives and regional councils. Preliminary results are expected within days, with final outcomes anticipated later this month.

With a population exceeding 130 million, Ethiopia is Africa's second-largest country by population, the headquarters of the African Union, a major diplomatic actor in the Horn of Africa, and one of the continent's fastest-growing economies.

Its stability directly affects neighboring Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, Djibouti, Kenya, and Eritrea.

The country's economic trajectory also matters to investors across Africa because Ethiopia has become one of the continent's most closely watched reform stories. Over the past two years, authorities have accelerated efforts to liberalize sectors of the economy, attract foreign investment, reform the foreign-exchange market, and reduce state control over key industries.

For many African governments facing debt pressures and sluggish growth, Ethiopia is increasingly viewed as a test case for whether large-scale economic reforms can coexist with political and security challenges.

Despite the scale of the vote, one of its defining features is who cannot participate.

Several constituencies in the Tigray Region, the Amhara Region, and parts of the Oromia Region remain unable to hold elections due to insecurity and ongoing conflict.

In Tigray, the scars of the devastating 2020-2022 civil war remain visible despite the Pretoria peace agreement that formally ended major fighting. Political divisions within the region, governance disputes, and tensions between former allies have complicated efforts to restore normal political life.

Meanwhile, fighting between federal forces and the Fano militia continues in parts of Amhara, while insurgent activity linked to the Oromo Liberation Army remains a concern in parts of Oromia.

The result is that millions of Ethiopians are effectively excluded from participating in a national election intended to determine the country's political future.

For many observers, this raises broader questions about representation, legitimacy, and national reconciliation.

Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed arrives at the parliament to address parliament members on the current situation of the country, in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, March 20, 2025. REUTERS/Tiksa Negeri/File Photo

Few African leaders have experienced as dramatic a political journey as Abiy Ahmed.

When he came to power in 2018, he was celebrated internationally as a reformer who promised democratic opening, released political prisoners, and reached a historic peace agreement with neighboring Eritrea.

Those efforts earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019.

But the outbreak of the Tigray conflict transformed both his presidency and Ethiopia's international image.

The war became one of Africa's deadliest conflicts in recent decades, drawing accusations of human rights abuses from multiple sides and straining relations between Ethiopia and Western governments.

Today, Abiy's supporters argue that he successfully preserved national unity, restored federal authority, and positioned Ethiopia for economic growth.

His critics contend that democratic reforms have stalled and that political space has narrowed significantly since his early years in office.

This election is therefore being viewed as a referendum not only on his government but also on the broader direction of Ethiopia's political system.

For many ordinary Ethiopians, economic concerns outweigh political debates. Inflation, unemployment, rising living costs, and currency pressures remain major challenges, and yet, Ethiopia has also recorded some of the strongest growth figures on the continent.

The government projects economic growth approaching 10 percent, supported by infrastructure investment, manufacturing expansion, agricultural production, and economic reforms designed to attract foreign capital.

A major milestone came in 2024 when Ethiopia reached a financing agreement with the International Monetary Fund and launched significant foreign-exchange reforms.

Authorities argue these measures are beginning to stabilize the economy and unlock new investment opportunities.

However, many households say the benefits have yet to fully translate into everyday living conditions.

This disconnect between macroeconomic success and household realities has become a recurring theme in elections across Africa and could shape how voters assess the government's performance.

Photo Credit: Pablographix

Although dozens of parties are participating in the election, analysts expect the Prosperity Party to secure a comfortable majority.

Several major opposition groups remain weakened by internal divisions, organizational challenges, and disputes with electoral authorities.

Opposition leaders have accused the government of creating obstacles to campaigning, limiting political freedoms, and using state institutions to strengthen the ruling party's advantage.

Government officials reject those claims and insist that electoral processes are being conducted according to the law.

The absence of a unified opposition front has further reduced the likelihood of a competitive national contest.

Instead, many races are expected to revolve around regional dynamics and local political issues rather than a direct challenge to Abiy's national leadership.

Election authorities introduced new digital systems designed to improve voter verification and reduce fraud.

Several African countries have increasingly embraced biometric registration and digital electoral technologies, hoping to strengthen public confidence in election outcomes.

Success in Ethiopia could encourage broader adoption across the continent, while technical failures or disputes could reinforce concerns about relying too heavily on technology in politically sensitive environments.

The most important question is not who wins but what happens after the vote.

If the Prosperity Party secures the overwhelming mandate many analysts expect, attention will quickly shift to three issues: whether Ethiopia can consolidate peace in Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia; whether economic reforms can deliver tangible improvements in living standards; and whether the government expands political inclusion or continues to face criticism over democratic freedoms.

These questions matter far beyond Ethiopia.

Across Africa, governments are wrestling with similar challenges: balancing security and democracy, attracting investment while managing debt, and pursuing growth while addressing public demands for accountability.